The past, the present & the future
Global technology trends and predictions
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This is a single article from the Patent Strategist Volume 1. Download the whole thing here.
Looking back over recent years, global patent grant volumes have remained remarkably stable. Annual grants have hovered around the two million mark, peaking at approximately 2.3 million in 2021 before settling back into a consistent long-term average.
This apparent stability, however, masks far more dramatic changes beneath the surface. While total volume has plateaued, where patents are being granted, who owns them, and which technologies are driving growth have shifted substantially, particularly in fast-moving, strategically critical sectors.
Two technology areas stand out most clearly:
- AI/advanced computing (including quantum) and
- Green transportation technologies, encompassing electric vehicles, batteries, and associated infrastructure.
AI and advanced computing: explosive growth and a geopolitical realignment
Patent activity in AI and advanced computing has accelerated at a pace unmatched by most other technology areas. Although grant rates in this sector only actually exceeded the global average in 2025, the rate of increase since 2020 has been extraordinary.
In 2020, fewer than 20,000 patents were granted globally in this category. By 2025, that number had risen to over 115,000, representing growth of nearly 500% in just five years.
Equally striking is the shift in ownership. In 2020, the landscape was dominated by US technology companies, with IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Meta occupying four of the top five positions.
Only four of the top twenty patent owners were Chinese, with Alibaba the highest-ranked among them in fifth.
By 2025, the picture looks very different. Chinese organisations now dominate the field, accounting for 12 of the top 20 patent owners. State Grid Corporation of China leads the rankings by a significant margin, with Chinese companies leapfrogging US giants like Microsoft, Intel and Nvidia. Of the US companies, only IBM & Google remain in the top five, and neither occupy any of the top two positions.
This is not merely a volume story. It reflects a structural shift in how AI and computing innovation is being funded, organised, and protected, with state-aligned entities and academic institutions now playing a central role alongside traditional corporate R&D.
Green transport, EVs, and batteries: incumbents entrench, new players rise
In contrast to AI, the green transport and EV patent landscape shows greater continuity in ownership, but with important changes in emphasis.
Between 2020 and 2025, the top five patent owners in this space consistently came from a familiar group of around ten organisations. Automotive manufacturers remain the dominant force, and their influence has grown rather than diminished.
In 2020, recognised automotive companies accounted for 62% of the patents held by the top 20 owners; by 2025, that figure had risen to 69%. This increase comes despite rising activity from specialist battery manufacturers and electric power companies such as CATL, LG Energy Solution, Bosch, and State Grid Corporation of China.
Notably, while the top five owners in 2020 were all automotive manufacturers, by 2025 two of the top five are now non-automotive, reflecting the growing importance of batteries, charging infrastructure, and grid integration.
The message here is one of convergence rather than displacement. Automotive OEMs are expanding their technological footprint, while energy and battery specialists are becoming increasingly central to the innovation ecosystem underpinning electric mobility.
What this means for 2026
Looking ahead, several trends appear likely to define patent activity in 2026:
- China is set to continue dominating global patent grants, both in overall volume and in strategically important technologies.
- AI and advanced computing patenting will continue to significantly outperform the global average, though the pace of growth is likely to moderate as the sector matures.
- Green transport, EVs, and battery technologies will remain consistently above average, driven by regulation, infrastructure investment, and platform competition.
- Non-automotive players will continue to climb the rankings in green transport technologies, reflecting the growing importance of energy systems, power electronics, and software alongside traditional vehicle engineering.
Taken together, these trends suggest that while global patent volumes may appear steady, the competitive and geopolitical dynamics of innovation are anything but. For patent strategists, understanding who is innovating (and where) is becoming as important as understanding what is being patented.
